Vietnam's Rice Export Forecast for 2024 Estimated to Reach $5.3 Billion

Record Rice Export in 2023

The latest preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that as of mid-December 2023, Vietnam had exported over 7.9 million tons of rice, valued at over $4.5 billion, up 11% in volume and 29% in value compared to the same period in 2022. In 2023, rice exports could reach 8.2 million tons with a turnover of nearly $4.8 billion, the highest level since 1989 (the year Vietnam began rice exports).

Notably, the proportion of high-quality rice varieties in Vietnam has increased from 50% in 2015 to 74% in 2020 and now stands at 85%. The volume of rice exports is maintained at 6 million tons, showing a growth trend over the years, with export values consistently above $3 billion per year.

Regarding export markets, the General Department of Customs also noted that as of November 2023, ASEAN and China are the two largest markets. Specifically, exports to ASEAN reached 4.58 million tons, up 25.6% compared to the same period last year; exports to China reached 896 thousand tons, up 10.9%. Combined, the volume of rice exported to these two markets reached 5.48 million tons, accounting for 72% of the country's total rice exports during the same period.

Assessing the results of rice exports, the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) stated that in 2023, amidst food security uncertainties, with India and Russia tightening rice exports, Vietnam emerged as a major exporting country with large output, many high-quality rice varieties, providing stability for various market segments from Asia to Europe (EU).

Mr. Nguyen Nhu Cuong, Director of the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), also noted that with India accounting for over 40% of the world's rice supply issuing restrictions on rice exports, it is an opportunity for other suppliers in the market. Vietnam's success in the rice industry has seized the opportunity to increase revenue and profits for farmers.

The forecast for 2024 rice exports will continue to be favorable due to the world's shortage

The forecast for 2024 rice exports will continue to be favorable due to the world's shortage of 5 million tons of rice and the likelihood that India will maintain export restrictions into next year. Meanwhile, some traditional rice-importing countries of Vietnam such as Indonesia and the Philippines are increasing their rice imports. Currently, Vietnam's largest customer, Indonesia, is expected to increase imports by about 600,000 tons.

With these advantages, the VFA expects that the rice export target for 2024 will reach $5.3 billion, an increase of nearly 13% compared to 2023.

Not only the quantity but also the price of rice is expected to continue to rise. Mr. Nguyen Duc Dung, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, stated that in theory, when the price of rice is high, it encourages countries to increase production, but due to unfavorable weather conditions in many areas in 2024, many countries are reducing production in the first quarter of 2024. El Niño is still continuing in 2024, leading to low supply, which is still a factor supporting high rice prices in the future.

According to experts, besides opportunities, the biggest challenge for Vietnam's rice industry is the lack of branding; the proportion of low-quality product exports is still high.

To achieve the rice export target in 2024 equal to that of 2023 while ensuring food security firmly, experts emphasize the need to implement synchronized solutions for production and market development.

In addition to regional planning and monitoring in production, enterprises, cooperatives, and farmers are advised to strengthen the linkage in producing high-quality rice, restructuring varieties, diversifying export markets, and aligning with Vietnam's rice export market development strategy until 2030.

(Source: Vietnam Financial Times)

Contact Information:

Tâm Dương Packaging Company

Hotline: 0928 779 113 (Mr. Đăng) / 0355 508 586 (Mr. Hùng)

Email: marketing@tamduongpack.vn